Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

616
FXUS63 KMKX 092019
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
319 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into tonight. Some fog may
  occur inland from Lake Michigan and in the Wisconsin River
  Valley.

- Storm chances (30-40%) return Thursday afternoon and evening
  as an MCV moves through the upper Mississippi Valley.

- Heat and humidity ramp up Friday into Saturday, along with
  the next widespread chances (~60-75%) for showers and
  thunderstorms.

- Brief break from the humidity on Sunday, with muggy conditions
  and afternoon storm chances returning Monday-Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 245 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Tonight through Thursday night:

A few showers can`t be ruled out along a combined lake
breeze/sfc trough this afternoon along the Wisconsin/Illinois
border. Otherwise most of the area should remain dry. Tonight,
patchy fog is anticipated inland from Lake Michigan and in the
Wisconsin River Valley.

Tomorrow, models have ramped up chances (now 30-40%) for rain
during the afternoon compared to previous forecasts. This is
owed to an MCV from dying convection in Iowa Thursday morning,
moving overhead by Thursday late afternoon and evening. PVA
associated with this feature will kick off shower and
thunderstorm activity over the Upper Mississippi Valley during
the early afternoon, with this activity translating east into
Thursday evening.

While widespread severe weather is not expected model soundings
depict modest mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km amid SBCAPE
around 2000 J/kg and dry low- levels. The steep lapse rates
would support hail, provided the storm doesn`t collapse first
amid the weak effective shear around 20 knots. Any collapsing
storms may pose a localized downburst threat with high winds.

CMiller

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 318 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Friday through Wednesday:

Still a bit of uncertainty with model disagreement in the
extended period, but the general consensus is that a warm front
is expected to lift north over the area by Friday morning.
This will usher in a more humid air mass. There may be a few
showers/storms along the initial push of WAA Friday morning. An
elongated trough is then expected to kick off thunderstorm
activity Friday evening along the Mississippi River and that
activity will work east into the overnight hours, generally
weakening as it travels east.

The trough will slowly swing through on Saturday as a cold
front. With its slow movement, there may be a enough time for
some destablization in southeast Wisconsin, and a second round
of thunderstorms may form Saturday afternoon before exiting east
over Lake Michigan.

The cold front will then pass Saturday night, with less humid
and quieter conditions expected Sunday. A warm front is then
expected to approach Monday, bringing back humidity and chances
for storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday.

CMiller

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 231 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Winds will remain northerly this evening, and will slowly come
around to easterly and southeasterly by daybreak on Friday. Low
clouds are not expected to return, but some patchy fog may
develop inland from Lake Michigan and in the Wisconsin River
Valley overnight. Conditions will remain dry.

Tomorrow, scattered thunderstorms look possible during the late
afternoon and into the evening.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

High pressure will linger over the Upper Great Lakes into at
least Thursday night. Breezy north winds over the southern half
of the lake will give way to generally light and northerly winds
tonight through Thursday. A few thunderstorms may move over the
southern half of the Lake Thursday night.

A warm front will then lift north Friday morning, change winds to
southerly over the lake. Winds remain light until they turn
southwesterly Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front, where
gusts may reach 20 knots. Winds then ease and become westerly
following the frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday.

CMiller

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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