Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

181
FXUS63 KMKX 220418
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1018 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a cold night, temperatures will return to near normal
  Sunday, with above normal temperatures then expected through
  the upcoming week.

- A mix of light freezing drizzle and snow is possible later
  Sunday night into Monday morning, with a transition to light
  snow and rain by the afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1015 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Forecast details largely remain on track. With cloud cover
moving overhead and slow WAA occuring over the region, the
coldest temperatures of the night may have already occurred in
some scattered spots as temperatures cratered after sunset amid
light winds and clearer skies. Temperatures through the rest of
the night may very well remain mostly unchanged or may warm
slightly with time toward sunrise in the weak WAA regime,
provided there aren`t large gaps in the cloud cover.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 304 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Tonight through Sunday:

High pressure overhead this afternoon will continue to shift
eastward tonight into Sunday, as low pressure approaches from
the west. Scattered to broken high clouds this afternoon will
become more overcast tonight as strong warm air advection aloft
moves in. Given the current snow pack and light winds, it looks
like there will be a period of time for temperatures to tank in
the east this evening before the more substantial cloud cover
moves in. Went middle of the road with lows tonight among a
pretty wide spread in model output, given some uncertainty in
the timing of the cloud cover.

Despite the substantial WAA, it looks like there will be too
much dry air overall for any precip chances tonight into Sunday
per latest model soundings. Temps will recover nicely tomorrow
though, with highs back to around normal.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 304 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Sunday night through Saturday:

Persistent warm air advection aloft and increasing moisture
Sunday night into Monday will result in a return of precip
chances, as a shortwave rolls through ahead of the main trough
passage. Mid level dry air will linger during this period, with
a chance for light freezing drizzle to at least mix in with snow
chances into early Monday. There will be a better chance for
mainly snow north of I-94 through the day Monday, with a
dusting possible. Precip may turn over to rain in the south by
the afternoon as surface temps warm up, with precip winding
down by late afternoon or early evening as the low moves east
of the area.

High pressure will bring quiet weather on Tuesday, with on and
off rain chances likely Wednesday into the weekend as multiple
shortwaves move through the region. Above normal temperatures
are expected through the end of the week, with highs possibly
pushing 50 by Saturday.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1017 PM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

Expect continuing VFR and light and variable winds overnight as
high pressure moves overhead. Tomorrow, VFR cloud cover should
continue, but winds are expected to grow southerly and gusty
Sunday afternoon and evening.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 304 AM CST Sat Dec 21 2024

High pressure will continue to move eastward through the region
into tonight, shifting to the eastern Great Lakes on Sunday.
Light winds through tonight will become southerly and pick up
Sunday into Sunday night on the back side of the high and ahead
of an approaching low. Southerly gusts up to 30 knots are
expected during this period, with a few gale force gusts not out
of the question over the open waters. A small Craft Advisory
will likely be needed for time frame.

Low pressure will then cross Lake Michigan on Monday, with
breezy north to northwest winds developing on the back side of
the low later Monday into Monday night. Lighter winds will
return on Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the
northwest.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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